Health in 2040: projected patterns of illness in England

In January 2024, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published updated national population projections by age and sex. This addendum shows how the updated ONS population projections affect our projections from Health in 2040.

Produced by the Health Foundation’s Real Centre in partnership with the University of Liverpool, this report aims to support policymakers prepare for the future by looking at patterns of illness over the next two decades. The analysis lays out the potential scale and impact of the growth in the number of people living with major illness as the population ages, assigning scores to 20 conditions based on how likely the illness is to affect people’s use of primary care and emergency health services and likelihood of death.

The challenges of improving care for an ageing population and enabling people to live independent lives for longer are not unique to England, with countries around the world facing similar pressures on their health services. However, with the NHS already under unprecedented strain, the findings point to significant challenges ahead and questions about how care should be delivered in future. 

There is no silver bullet to reduce the growth in the number of people living with major illness. But the report's projections underline the need for a long-term plan to reform, modernise and invest in the NHS. They also demand a bold, new approach that invests in the nation’s health and wellbeing, placing it on a par with increasing economic growth and tackling climate change as one of the defining challenges of our time.